Airbus raises aircraft demand forecast

       The European planemaker Airbus has increased its forecasts for long-term new plane demand but said the current industry crisis was likely to spark a spate of new order cancellations this winter.
       The EADS subsidiary said in a Thursday statement it saw global demand for 25,000 new aircraft across the industry in the twenty-year period between 2009 and 2029, up from the 24,262 it forecast for 2007-2027.
       It said replacement of older aircraft and the expansion of low-cost carriers would both be factors in future growth,while the new planes would have a total value of $3.1 trillion.
       Airbus chief operating officer for customers John Leahy told reporters, however, that he thought the upcoming winter would be tough for airlines, which would then cancel or postpone orders.
       "I think it's going to be a difficult winter. Airlines flew with not very high yields in the summer so did not build up the war chests they usually do," he said.
       "We are expecting some airlines to say 'we'd love to have the aircraft, but we haven't got the money'."
       Yields, a keenly-watched indicator in the airline industry, show average fares per passenger.
       Leahy added that he remained con-fident the company's 2010 deliveries would match the current year, which in turn is expected to stay flat on 2008 at around 480.
       He added that he did not expect a World Trade Organisation inquiry into the competitive impact of subsidies received by Airbus to disrupt the devel-opment of its new A-350 wide-body jet.
       "I see no impact on the A-350 programme from the WTO, he said."
       Airbus said that in spite of an anticipated 2% fall in Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPKs) this year - a measure of air travel passenger numbers - the firm expected the figure to be up 4.6% next year and continue at similar levels.
       Arch-rival Boeing said in its equivalent forecast in June that it expected 29,000 new planes to be ordered over twenty years, at a value of $3.2 trillion.
       Meanwhile, Airbus chief executive Tom Enders said in remarks published yesterday that the European planemaker "faces two further 'difficult' years and does not rule out making further production cuts if necessary to adjust to demand.
       "I certainly cannot exclude that we will cut back production even more,"he told the Wall Street Journal in an interview."I think we still have two difficult years ahead of us."
       Airbus last year suspended plans to increase production of its top-selling single-aisle, A320-family jets to 40 planes a month and in February this year it decided to cut that production to 34 a month from 36 a month from October 2009.
       Production rates of the wide-body A330/A340 family would be paused at the current level of 8.5 a month, and not increased further as previously planned,the planemaker said in February.
       Failing to cut production creates the risk of making so-called "white tails"that leave the factory floor without a buyer and have to be parked idle at the jetmaker's expense.